п»їHow to win at betting in 10 easy steps the bookies don't want you to know.
What’s the best way to get round the bookies’ tricks that try and pull you through their doors? Let us tell you.
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14:12, 11 APR 2018.
Gambling is, by its very nature, a risk-ridden way to fill your time or even to try and make money. But, when done sensibly, it can also be a fun and exciting addition to watching sport.
But how do you make the most of your bet? What’s the best way to get round the bookies’ tricks that try and pull you through their doors?
It’s all about finding the best value for money. Whether that’s the right prices, the right markets or even the best time to put your bet on, follow these tips from an ex-betting shop employee and see if you can make the most from your gambling experience.
1. Know your sport inside out.
It's not just about which football team has won their last six games but how well they have really played offensively and defensively. Were they good at keeping possession or were they lucky?
Which tennis player is having a spat with their coach? That golfer might have won two majors this season but how much experience does he have on a links course?
These are the kinds of details that will inform your betting and will better prepare you for spotting those good-value markets.
2. The favourite doesn't always win.
This seems obvious to point out but it is difficult for any punter to ignore the price bookies have given.
A good example? When Rafael Nadal took on Fabio Fognini at the Barcelona Open back in April, bookmakers had Nadal as the heavy favourite. He was as short as 1/10 with some.
On the surface this would make sense. Nadal is the King of Clay and has won this very tournament a record-breaking eight times.
What the bookmakers had overlooked was that Fognini had beaten Nadal on clay only a few months earlier in Rio De Janeiro. Combine this with Fognini's record of knocking out top seeds and suddenly his 8/1 price is looking very attractive.
Fognini went on to beat Nadal in straight sets.
3. Don't just stick to one bookmaker – shop around.
There is a big emphasis on brand loyalty in the betting business. Because it's such a competitive sector, companies will try and lure you to bet with them and only them.
Check the offers available for specific bets. The first goalscorer market is one of the most popular bets in football and as a result, bookies all have their own spin on it.
Betfred will double the odds if your player scores twice and treble the odds if he scores a third time.
Ladbrokes, on the other hand, will double the odds if he scores within 25 minutes and you will probably find that most other bookies have their own version to try and get you through their doors instead of someone else's.
Your research should tell you which of these offers will most suit you for any given match. Be flexible and be prepared to put in the leg work.
4. The fewer selections, the better.
This is something that, even though it seems like common sense, punters forget all the time. The fewer selections you include in your bet, the more chance you stand of winning.
If you're betting to make money think small, not big. One team or selection if you can stake enough. Three or four maximum. Once you find yourself putting that 20-fold accumulator on, you really are on cloud cuckoo land.
Bookies lose most of their money from singles. An extreme example would be some high-roller coming into a shop and putting ВЈ10,000 on a 4/6 shot.
Just one single at an odds-on price but the shop would have to turnover ВЈ6,666 to cover that payout alone.
If you do enough research, you should feel relatively safe putting ВЈ5 or ВЈ10 on one selection. But trebles usually offer a decent return if you really do want a higher payout.
5. Avoid the temptation of odds-on prices.
If you do find yourself desperately wanting that long-shot bet on a Saturday afternoon, do not pad out your accumulator with odds-on selections. You're decreasing your chance of winning for next to no extra cash.
This is really easy to do in tennis. It's the opening week of a Grand Slam and you see the top players are all drawn against relative unknowns.
It would seem like a great idea to lump them altogether in a multiple to try and win some easy money. But this would be a mistake.
Tennis is notorious for offering terrible prices on match-betting and so you could put the world's elite in a ten-fold and still only manage to scrape returns at 3/1.
Is it really worth ВЈ10 to only treble your money when any single loss at a price of 1/8 (for example) would result in your entire bet going down? Probably not.
It would make more sense to do some research and find an up-and-coming player who has a favourable draw and back them at a better price.
6. Consider the less obvious markets.
Again, once you've done enough research, you should know you're sport well enough to find better value in the hundreds of other markets the bookies offer.
It is arguably a way for the bookies just to provide you with more ways to lose but you can find the good prices if you look hard enough.
For example, you might not feel safe putting Leicester City to beat Man City in your accumulator.
They're higher than them in the league but does that mean they're a stronger team? That's for the football pages to discuss.
But just a minimal amount of research shows that Jamie Vardy is the league's top scorer. So betting on him to score anytime is as safe as bets come. And at 7/5, it's not bad value either.
7. Make sure you understand the markets.
While we're on the subject of the less obvious markets, if you do pick an obscure one, make sure to check the terms with the betting shop staff.
A common mistake is the half time/full time bet vs to win both halves. If you put a HT/FT bet on, your team simply has to be winning at half time and then win the match.
If you back your team to win both halves, you are betting on them to win the first half and the second half separately. The team must score more goals than the opposition in both halves for you to win your bet.
It's a subtle difference but frustrating for punters who come looking to collect winnings when they're team was leading 2-1 at half time and won the match 2-1. The second-half score must have been 0-0 and so the bet goes down.
8. Don't bet with your heart.
You might really want your team to win. You want it so badly you even start to convince yourself it's possible. Before you know it, you believe it so much that you've put your money on it.
And bookies love it because each week they'll rake it in from all the home fans willing their soon-to-be relegated team to beat the table leaders.
Similarly, avoid important events like derby games. The unpredictable element is magnified because there's more at stake and players may elevate themselves for that extra degree of honour and pride.
If you must bet on these events, consider the other markets. They probably won't beat the table leaders but could they get a goal? Result and both teams to score could be a more sensible bet.
9. Pick your moment.
It's difficult to pinpoint the right time to place your bet because, unlike with horse racing, it’s not вЂbest odds guaranteed’ on sports bets but it's usually best to do it on the day.
But most bookies will enhance prices or have special offers ahead of a popular event.
Some will do this for the full day of the event itself. Others will boost a price for a set period at random points meaning unless you spend the day in the shop, you'll only come across these by chance.
If it's a particularly popular event, the bookies will almost certainly be promoting it with offers designed to persuade you to part with your cash.
It could mean money back as a free bet if the favourite scores first in a football fixture.
It could also mean that a shop may boost the price of a player to score anytime from EVS to 6/5 between 12pm-3pm, for example.
10. It pays to follow less popular sports.
As bookmakers try and offer more and more ways for us to hand over our cash, they are forever expanding the list of sports and markets they cover.
This undoubtedly means that they are covering sports they might not know as much about as they would like.
A good example is MMA. The sport of mixed martial arts is on the rise and so we are getting increasingly more coverage and more information about competitors.
When world bantamweight champion, Ronda Rousey, stepped into the Octagon at UFC193, she was heavy favourite and her opponent Holly Holm was out as far as 9/1 early and still 6/1 when the fight got underway.
But why was Rousey at such a short price? Holm is a boxing world champion while Rousey’s striking is somewhat lacking. Rousey’s strength was her judo, yet Holm had defended 100% of takedowns going into this fight.
It was never going to be as clear cut as everyone thought and any real look at the stats ahead of the event suggested that 6/1 was amazing value.
Not only did Holm go on to win the fight but she KO’d the champ in just two rounds.
If there was an unbeatable formula, bookies would soon go out of business and we’d all be millionaires.
Everyone will have good days and bad days but follow these tips and you should soon be able to spot the best value bets available and hopefully reap the rewards!
Just remember only bet what you can afford to lose, never chase your losses and if the fun stops, stop!
How To Win at Sports Betting.
The statement I’m about to make will most certainly shock any sports bettor who reads it. While most of us are under the impression that everyone betting sports wins long term, so long as they bet often enough, this isn’t actually true.
Wait you’re not surprised? Of course you’re not! Everyone knows the bookmaker has an advantage so more times than not sports bettors lose. However, what if there was a way that the rolls could be reversed; what if the sports bettor always had the advantage?
This is in fact possible.
Have you ever heard the term advantage player? This is a label gambling companies assign to players who only bet when the odds are in their favor.
Even though “on average” bookmakers have a 4.55% advantage on straight bets (2.38% @ -105), the key word is “average”; advantage players find bets where the bookmaker’s advantage is negative. Whether your goal is to be a sports betting pro, or just earn a little money on the side, the first step to winning is to stop making –EV bets.
If you understand what expected value, -EV, and +EV mean, go ahead and skip down to our advice on finding +EV bets. If you’re not familiar with this concept continue reading.
Expected Value (EV) Explained.
Expected value is a term professional gamblers use on a regular basis. To explain what it means in simple terms I’ll use an example. Let’s say me and you decided to have a coin flipping contest. We flip coins and you give me $1 for each outcome of heads; I give you $1 for each outcome of tails. We could flip coins for all eternity and neither of us will ever have an advantage because on average half the time we lose $1 half the time we win $1. While there will be swings back and forth, as long as we flip the coin enough times eventually we’ll both break even. This particular bet has neutral expected value.
Now let’s say I’m tired of flipping coins, and want to quit, but while begging me to stay you offer me a better deal. This new deal pays me $1.10 for every heads, and I still pay you $1.00 for every tails. What happens now is half the time I win $1.10 and half the time I lose $1.00. If we flip 100 times I should average 50 wins of $1.10 ($55) and 50 losses of $1 ($50). Every flip of the coin I have a positive expectation (+EV) of 5 cents. As the one offering me this proposition you have the opposite, every flip of the coin is 5 cents –EV for you.
Every wager made in sports betting has either a positive expected value (+EV), negative expectation value (-EV) or in rare cases neutral expected value. Winning sports betting requires avoiding –EV and finding +EV bets.
Finding +EV Sports Bets.
The reasons most sports bettors don’t spend time learning the tricks of advantage players is it’s slightly time consuming, most have no leads how to do it, are overwhelmed or when they do learn it’s not actually fun. If you’re looking for something fun we suggest paint balling, a trip to the amusement park, circus or what have you. If you’re looking to actually make money then you’ll need to know how to find +EV bets.
Teaser Betting Strategy – This is perhaps the easiest method a sports bettor can use to find bets with a positive advantage. When you also read our article on the current betting market, you’ll realize just before game time the lines are efficient. Teasers are based off the current betting lines, so no longer do you need to go do any deep analysis to find out whether as straight bet is +EV. Here find spots where teasers increase the win rate by enough and you’ll have a +EV bet. This is all described in our article on teaser betting strategy.
Prop Betting Strategy – Prop bets are generally considered the easiest wagering opportunity for sports bettors to beat. In our article on prop betting strategy I give a full break down of the prop bet “which team will score first”. After reading that article you’ll have enough information to start finding +EV bets on this specific prop. In time, as you get experience you’ll be able to solve other prop bet on your own and then beat them using as similar method to the one I show in the example.
Must Read Sports Betting Books.
If you’re new to advantage betting some books that will help you greatly with the basics are:
2) Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao.
Once you’re much more experienced and ready to take things to the next level then I strongly Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu D. Feustel. This is a book for advanced sports bettors and not a good read for anyone not already winning. It is heavily math, statistic and handicapping intensive. If you eventually decided on a career as an advantage player at some point down the road you’ll want to work to understand what Elihu D. Feustel shares in this book.
No matter what methods you use to find +EV bets, the information contained in our article on finding maximum value is a must read. Next, if you’re thinking about purchasing picks, read our article on winning without a tout. In that article you’ll also find some information on getting free picks. Use that with the earlier mention getting max value article, and shopping the market and you’ll likely be turning an easy, yet slightly time consuming profit.
With this out of the way let me now cover the easiest way to get your bankroll started: “Bonus Whoring”.
A Free Lunch in Sports Betting.
If you’ve heard the saying there is no such thing as a free lunch, well think again. Here are some bonuses that sports betting sites offer to players making their first deposit:
Bovada offers 10% cash bonus on bettor’s first deposit. The best thing about this bonus is it is instant and it’s cash (as opposed to free play). Also no crazy strings such as rollover, hold period etc, simply roll your initial deposit and 10% bonus over a single time and it is free and clear your own money to keep.
Here you can get up to $1,000 in free bonus money. Getting the max bonus is a multi step process. First sign up, and be sure to leave the Promotion Code field empty. Next follow the steps on our BetOnline Bonus page to negotiate a massive bonus with their live support.
When you combine +EV bets with free bonus cash, winning at sports betting is a cinch. The only piece of the puzzle you have left is protecting and growing your bankroll. Our best advice here, never wager more than a few percent of what you have on hand on a single game.
Once you have this all down, while it takes other sports bettors a lot of luck to win, the opposite is true for you. A bookie beating an advantage player who uses responsible bet sizing, keeps his composure during downswings while making only +EV bets, is quite difficult. Follow this and the only ways you lose is horrible bad luck!
We wish you the best of luck and know soon enough you’ll be shacking your head confused the same at us, whenever you hear the statement “most sports bettors lose” and clearly you won’t be on of them.
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